Winter's Coming: Why the Flu Shot is Your Best Defence This Season
- Dr Duy Dinh
- May 28
- 19 min read
Updated: Sep 4
As the familiar chill of winter approaches, so too does the annual influenza, or flu, season. While often underestimated, influenza is a significant respiratory illness that can lead to serious health complications. Fortunately, there is a highly effective tool available to protect individuals and communities: the seasonal flu vaccine. The World Health Organization (WHO) unequivocally states that vaccination is the best way to prevent the disease. This post will delve into the benefits of the flu vaccine, explore the potential consequences of forgoing this protection, clarify who should receive the vaccine, discuss the rare instances where it might not be suitable, and examine recent statistics on influenza's impact both in Australia and globally.
The annual return of flu season can sometimes lead to a degree of complacency among the public. However, it is crucial to recognize influenza not as an unavoidable winter inconvenience, but as a preventable illness. By immediately establishing the seriousness of the flu and highlighting the proactive solution of vaccination, individuals can be empowered to take control of their health. Starting with a strong, positive message about the efficacy of the vaccine sets a proactive and empowering tone, which can enhance engagement and encourage consideration of vaccination.

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The Flu Unmasked: More Than Just a Bad Cold
Understanding the nature of influenza, how it spreads, and its range of symptoms is key to appreciating the importance of preventative measures like vaccination.

What is Influenza?
Seasonal influenza is an acute respiratory infection caused by influenza viruses. The primary culprits behind seasonal epidemics are Influenza A and Influenza B viruses. Influenza A viruses are further categorized into subtypes, such as A(H1N1) and A(H3N2), which are currently circulating in humans. Notably, the A(H1N1) strain that caused the 2009 pandemic, often written as A(H1N1)pdm09, replaced a previous A(H1N1) virus. It is important to recognize that only influenza type A viruses have been known to cause pandemics, underscoring their potential public health impact.
How Does it Spread?
Influenza viruses spread with remarkable ease. When an infected person coughs or sneezes, they release virus-containing droplets into the air, which can then infect individuals in close proximity. The virus can also be transmitted through hands contaminated with these viruses. The time from infection to the onset of illness, known as the incubation period, is typically about two days but can range from one to four days.
A particularly challenging aspect of influenza transmission is that individuals can be contagious even before they realize they are sick. It's possible to spread the virus to others from about one day before symptoms appear until approximately five to seven days after they start. This contagious period can be even longer in children and people with weakened immune systems. This pre-symptomatic spread highlights why preventative measures like vaccination are so vital; an individual can unknowingly transmit the virus, making vaccination a community-minded action to protect those around them, especially the vulnerable.
Symptoms: From Mild to Severe
Influenza symptoms typically begin around two days after exposure to the virus and often include a sudden onset of fever, a cough (which is usually dry and can be severe, sometimes lasting two weeks or more), headache, muscle and joint pain, severe malaise (a general feeling of being unwell), sore throat, and a runny nose. While some of these symptoms might be mistaken for a common cold, influenza tends to manifest more rapidly, and its symptoms are generally much more severe.
The overlap in initial symptoms between flu and a common cold can lead individuals to underestimate the severity of influenza until it progresses. This delay can be dangerous if complications arise. Therefore, it is crucial to recognize the rapid onset and greater severity of flu symptoms compared to a cold.
In most cases, people recover from fever and other symptoms within a week without needing medical attention. However, influenza can cause severe illness or death, particularly in individuals at high risk. It is critical to be aware of emergency symptoms that necessitate immediate medical care. For adults, these can include trouble breathing or shortness of breath, chest pain or pressure, ongoing dizziness, difficulty waking up or confusion, dehydration, seizures, worsening of existing medical conditions, and severe weakness or muscle pain. Emergency symptoms in children encompass those seen in adults, as well as fast breathing or ribs pulling in with each breath, grey or blue lips or nail beds, and signs of dehydration such as no tears when crying and a dry mouth. Recognizing these warning signs empowers individuals to seek appropriate and timely medical intervention.
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Your Annual Shield: How the Flu Vaccine Works and Why Timing Matters
The annual flu vaccine is a cornerstone of public health strategy, offering a sophisticated and adaptive defence against an ever-evolving virus. Understanding its mechanism, the rationale for yearly updates, and the optimal timing for vaccination can help individuals make informed decisions.

The Science: Stimulating Your Immune Defences
Flu vaccines work by prompting the body to develop antibodies, which are specialized proteins that fight infection. This process takes about two weeks following vaccination. These antibodies then provide protection against the specific influenza virus strains included in that year's vaccine. The vaccines achieve this by introducing either killed (inactivated) influenza viruses, specific proteins from an influenza virus (as in recombinant vaccines), or, in some vaccine types not used in Australia, weakened (attenuated) live viruses. Importantly, all influenza vaccines available in Australia are inactivated and cannot cause the flu.
Why a New Shot Every Year? The Ever-Changing Flu Virus
The need for an annual flu shot stems from two key factors. Firstly, influenza viruses are constantly changing, a phenomenon known as "antigenic drift". These genetic changes can lead to new virus strains emerging that the immune system may not recognize from previous infections or vaccinations. Secondly, the immune protection provided by vaccination wanes over time. Consequently, annual vaccination is recommended to ensure optimal protection against the virus strains that research indicates will be most prevalent during the upcoming flu season. This dual rationale underscores why a yearly shot is the best strategy for sustained defence.
Vaccine Formulation: A Global Effort for Local Protection
The composition of the seasonal flu vaccine is not arbitrary; it is the result of a meticulous global surveillance and prediction effort. The World Health Organization (WHO) coordinates this effort, collecting and analyzing data on circulating influenza strains from around the world. Based on this information, the WHO makes recommendations for the strains to be included in the vaccines for the Northern and Southern Hemispheres.
In Australia, the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) is responsible for regulating flu vaccines. The TGA takes advice from the Australian Influenza Vaccine Committee (AIVC), which considers the WHO recommendations alongside data on virus circulation specifically within Australia, to decide on the composition of vaccines for the Australian population. This sophisticated annual process of reformulation, involving global surveillance and expert committees, demonstrates a highly adaptive and scientific approach to public health, which should build confidence in the vaccine's relevance each year.
Types of Flu Vaccines Available in Australia
All influenza vaccines currently available in Australia are quadrivalent, meaning they are designed to protect against four different influenza virus strains: two influenza A strains (typically an A(H1N1) and an A(H3N2) subtype) and two influenza B strains. As mentioned, these are all inactivated vaccines, meaning they do not contain live virus and therefore cannot cause influenza illness.
Among the available options is Flucelvax Quad, a cell-based inactivated influenza vaccine. It is approved for use in individuals from 6 months of age and is funded under the National Immunisation Program (NIP) for certain high-risk groups aged 5–64 years.
For older Australians, who may have a less robust immune response to standard vaccines, "enhanced" influenza vaccines are available. These are specifically designed to stimulate a stronger immune response. They may contain a standard amount of antigen with an added adjuvant (a substance that boosts the immune response) or a higher amount of antigen. For the 2025 flu season in Australia, two such enhanced vaccines are available:
Fluad Quad: An adjuvanted vaccine registered for people aged 65 years and over.
Fluzone High-Dose Quadrivalent: A high-antigen vaccine registered for people aged 60 years and over. The availability of these different formulations, including standard, cell-based, and enhanced vaccines for older adults, reflects an evolving understanding of immunology and a commitment to tailoring approaches to maximize protection across diverse population groups. This targeted strategy signifies advancements in vaccine technology aimed at optimizing effectiveness, particularly for those most vulnerable to severe outcomes.
Timing is Key: When to Get Vaccinated
To ensure maximum protection, it is best to get vaccinated before the flu season begins in your community. This is because it takes approximately two weeks after vaccination for the body to develop sufficient antibodies to provide protection against influenza virus infection. This two-week window for antibody development directly influences the optimal timing for vaccination; protection is not instantaneous. Therefore, to be protected when flu season peaks, vaccination should ideally occur in autumn, before widespread circulation of the virus.
Specific timing considerations apply to certain groups. For instance, early vaccination (e.g., in July or August in the Southern Hemisphere context, if vaccine is available) can be considered for children who require two doses for their initial immunization series (the second dose must be given at least four weeks after the first). Similarly, women in their third trimester of pregnancy might consider vaccination during these months to help protect their infants for the first few months after birth, when they are too young to be vaccinated themselves. Conversely, for most adults, especially those aged 65 years and older, and pregnant women in their first or second trimester, very early vaccination (e.g., July or August) is generally not recommended, as protection may decrease over time and might not last through the entire flu season.
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The Flu Vaccine: A Powerful Ally for Your Health and Community
The annual influenza vaccine offers a multitude of benefits, extending from individual health protection to broader community well-being. Its impact is felt in reduced illness, fewer severe complications, and a lessened burden on healthcare systems and the economy.
Individual Benefits: Your Personal Health Shield
The primary benefit of the flu vaccine for an individual is a significant reduction in the risk of contracting influenza. However, the advantages do not stop there. Even if a vaccinated person does get sick with the flu, the illness is generally less severe than it would have been without vaccination. This reduction in severity is a critical benefit. No vaccine is 100% effective at preventing infection, and some vaccinated individuals may still contract the flu. However, vaccination primes the immune system for a faster, more effective response. This leads to milder symptoms and, importantly, a lower risk of serious flu-related complications such as hospitalization, admission to an intensive care unit (ICU), and even death.
Studies provide compelling evidence for this. For example, a 2021 study indicated that among adults who were hospitalized with flu, those who had been vaccinated had a 26% lower risk of ICU admission and a 31% lower risk of death from flu compared to unvaccinated individuals. The vaccine also helps reduce the frequency of flu-related doctor's visits and the amount of time missed from work or school.
For pregnant women, the flu vaccine offers dual protection: it safeguards their own health during pregnancy – a period of increased vulnerability to severe flu – and can also pass protective antibodies to their newborns, offering them some immunity during their first few vulnerable months of life.
Community Benefits: Protecting Those Around You (Herd Immunity)
Beyond individual protection, flu vaccination plays a vital role in safeguarding the wider community. When a significant portion of a population is vaccinated, it helps to prevent the transmission of the virus. This phenomenon is often referred to as 'herd immunity' or community immunity. It occurs when enough people are immune (primarily through vaccination) that the virus finds it difficult to spread, thereby indirectly protecting those who are unable to be vaccinated. This includes very young infants (too young for the vaccine), individuals with certain medical conditions that preclude vaccination, or those who may not mount a strong immune response to the vaccine (such as some elderly or immunocompromised individuals).
Higher vaccination rates, particularly among young and healthy individuals who are often key transmitters of the virus , directly contribute to protecting these most vulnerable members of society. By reducing the overall circulation of the virus, a protective "cocoon" effect is created around those who cannot rely on their own vaccination for full protection.
The community benefits also extend to tangible economic advantages. Widespread flu vaccination can lead to reduced healthcare costs by preventing hospitalizations and GP consultations. For instance, in New South Wales (NSW), it has been estimated that achieving broader vaccination coverage could avoid over 7,000 hospitalizations and nearly 100,000 GP consultations annually. Furthermore, by reducing illness, vaccination minimizes lost work hours and productivity. Estimates suggest that each additional person under 65 vaccinated in NSW could deliver at least $210 worth of net benefits, and the state currently loses up to eight million work hours each year due to flu-related illnesses. These figures illustrate that flu vaccination is not merely a personal health choice but a public good with substantial societal and economic returns, impacting workplace productivity and alleviating strain on the healthcare system.
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The Unseen Risks: What Happens If You Skip the Flu Vaccine?
While many people who contract influenza recover without lasting issues, the decision to forgo vaccination carries potential risks, ranging from a more severe bout of illness to life-threatening complications and long-term health problems.

The Potential Severity of Unvaccinated Flu
Influenza is more than just a "bad cold." For those who are unvaccinated, the illness can be particularly harsh. While most healthy individuals will recover within a week or two, the flu can lead to severe illness or even death, especially in high-risk groups. Symptoms such as high fever, severe muscle aches, debilitating fatigue, and a persistent cough can be intense and prolonged.
Serious Complications: When Flu Turns Dangerous
The flu virus can directly attack the respiratory system and also trigger an inflammatory response that affects other parts of the body, leading to serious complications. These include:
Pneumonia: A common and potentially life-threatening lung infection that can be caused by the influenza virus itself or by a secondary bacterial infection that takes hold when the body is weakened by flu.
Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS): A severe lung condition that can lead to respiratory failure.
Worsening of Chronic Medical Conditions: Influenza can exacerbate underlying health issues such as asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), heart disease, and diabetes, leading to severe flare-ups or a decline in overall health. This is a particular danger for a large segment of the population with pre-existing conditions.
Myocarditis and Encephalitis: Inflammation of the heart muscle (myocarditis) or the brain (encephalitis) are rare but serious complications.
Sepsis: A life-threatening condition that arises when the body's response to an infection injures its own tissues and organs.
Other Complications: These can include muscle damage (rhabdomyolysis or myositis) and toxic shock syndrome. In children, flu can also commonly lead to ear infections, sinus problems, and croup.
The fact that influenza, primarily a respiratory virus, can trigger or exacerbate such serious, life-threatening conditions affecting multiple organ systems underscores the importance of prevention. The body's inflammatory response to the virus can have systemic effects, impacting organs beyond the lungs, such as the heart, or leading to overwhelming conditions like sepsis. Highlighting these severe, multi-organ complications elevates the perceived risk of not getting vaccinated.
Long-Term Health Impacts: The Flu's Lingering Shadow
The impact of influenza may not always end when the acute symptoms subside. For some, the flu can cast a long shadow, leading to persistent health problems:
Increased Risk of Heart Attack: Research has indicated a significantly increased risk of heart attack in the period following an influenza infection. One study found that the risk of having a heart attack was six times higher in the week after being diagnosed with the flu compared to the year before or after the infection. This striking statistic reveals a serious, less commonly known cardiovascular risk associated with influenza.
Loss of Endurance and Strength: Particularly in older adults, a severe bout of flu requiring bed rest can lead to a significant loss of muscle tone and strength. This deconditioning can contribute to a more general physical decline, potentially affecting an individual's ability to perform daily activities and live independently. For this demographic, a severe flu episode can accelerate a decline in physical function, making prevention through vaccination even more critical for maintaining quality of life and independence.
Vulnerability to Secondary Infections: The flu can weaken the immune system, leaving individuals more susceptible to other infections. Bacterial pneumonia is a common secondary infection that can occur after the initial flu symptoms have passed.
These potential long-term consequences demonstrate that influenza can be far more than a temporary inconvenience. Its capacity to trigger severe complications and leave lasting health impacts reinforces the value of annual vaccination as a key preventative measure.
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The Flu's Toll: A Sobering Look at Recent Statistics
Influenza exerts a significant burden on populations worldwide and in Australia. Examining recent data on morbidity (illness) and mortality (death) provides a clear picture of its ongoing impact.

The Global Impact: A Persistent Worldwide Threat
Globally, seasonal influenza remains a major public health challenge. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that there are around one billion cases of seasonal influenza annually. Among these, 3 to 5 million are cases of severe illness. This widespread illness translates into a substantial number of deaths. The WHO estimates that influenza causes between 290,000 and 650,000 respiratory deaths each year globally. It is important to note that this figure primarily accounts for deaths directly due to respiratory complications of influenza and does not include deaths from other diseases, such as cardiovascular disease, that can be triggered or exacerbated by influenza. Therefore, the true global mortality burden of influenza is likely even higher.
The impact of influenza is not evenly distributed. A stark illustration of global health inequities is that an estimated 99% of deaths in children under 5 years of age with influenza-related lower respiratory tract infections occur in developing countries. This highlights the profound influence of access to healthcare, including vaccination programs, on influenza outcomes.
Focus on Australia: Recent Trends (Morbidity and Mortality)
In Australia, influenza continues to cause significant illness and mortality. Recent surveillance data provides insight into this burden:
Laboratory-Confirmed Cases (National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System - NNDSS):
In 2023, there were 289,129 laboratory-confirmed cases of influenza reported in Australia.
In 2024, this number rose to 343,501 cases (as of September 28, 2024), marking the highest number of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases recorded by the NNDSS in a single year to date.
Hospital Admissions (Influenza Complications Alert Network - FluCAN):
In 2023, there were 3,480 hospital admissions due to influenza recorded by FluCAN sentinel hospitals.
In 2024, there were 3,709 such admissions (as of September 28, 2024).
Deaths (Australian Bureau of Statistics - ABS): The ABS reports "Acute respiratory infection associated deaths," which include deaths where influenza was the underlying cause and deaths where it was a significant contributing factor.
In 2023, there were 607 influenza-associated deaths.
In 2024, there were 1,006 influenza-associated deaths.
For 2025, provisional data for January to March indicates 84 influenza-associated deaths.
It is noteworthy that while 2024 saw the highest number of laboratory-confirmed cases, the number of deaths, though substantial, was lower than in some particularly severe pre-COVID-19 pandemic years, such as 2017 (1,656 deaths) and 2019 (1,314 deaths). This complex picture may reflect various factors, including the virulence of circulating strains, population immunity from prior infections or vaccinations, the effectiveness of vaccines in reducing severity (even if not always preventing infection), and healthcare system capacity.
A concerning trend, however, is the reported decline in influenza vaccination rates in Australia. For example, in 2024, vaccine uptake was only 26% for children aged 6 months to less than 5 years, and 61% for those aged 65 years and over – both priority groups for vaccination. This decline is a critical warning sign. If this trend continues, it could lead to more severe flu seasons in the future, potentially reversing progress made in reducing severe outcomes, especially if a more virulent strain circulates or if the vaccine match is suboptimal in a given year. This highlights an urgent public health challenge that needs to be addressed.
Table: Influenza's Impact in Australia (Morbidity & Mortality Snapshot 2023-2025)
Year | Laboratory-Confirmed Cases (NNDSS) | Hospital Admissions (FluCAN) | Associated Deaths (ABS)* |
2023 | 289,129 | 3,480 | 607 |
2024 | 343,501 (to Sep 28) | 3,709 (to Sep 28) | 1,006 |
2025 (to March) | Data not yet available | Data not yet available | 84 (provisional) |
Note: ABS "Associated Deaths" include deaths where influenza was the underlying cause or a significant contributing factor. NNDSS and FluCAN data for 2024 are as of September 28, 2024. All 2025 data is provisional and subject to revision.
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The Flu Vaccine: Who Needs It, and The Rare Reasons for Caution
The influenza vaccine is a broadly recommended public health measure, yet understanding who benefits most and the specific, uncommon circumstances where caution is advised is essential for informed decision-making.

Universal Recommendation: A Shot for (Almost) Everyone
In Australia, annual influenza vaccination is recommended for all individuals aged 6 months and over, with only rare exceptions. This broad recommendation underscores the vaccine's safety profile and its importance in reducing the overall burden of influenza in the community.
Spotlight on High-Risk Groups: Extra Protection Needed
While everyone benefits from flu vaccination, it is particularly crucial for individuals at higher risk of developing serious complications from influenza. These groups include:
Pregnant women: At any stage of pregnancy, as they are more susceptible to severe illness from flu. Vaccination also provides passive protection to their newborns.
Children aged 6 months to under 5 years: This age group is prone to severe flu and its complications.
Adults aged 65 years and older: Older adults are at increased risk of severe disease, hospitalization, and death from influenza.
Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people: From 6 months of age, as they experience a higher burden of influenza and its complications.
People with chronic medical conditions: This includes individuals with heart disease, chronic lung conditions (like asthma or COPD), kidney disorders, liver disease, neurological conditions, metabolic disorders (like diabetes), and those with weakened immune systems due to conditions like HIV/AIDS or immunosuppressive medications.
Health workers and carers: To protect themselves and to prevent transmission to vulnerable patients and individuals in their care. Vaccination for healthcare workers is not just about personal protection but also an ethical responsibility to ensure patient safety.
In Australia, the influenza vaccine is provided free of charge under the National Immunisation Program (NIP) for these high-risk groups.
Clearing Up Confusion: Common Concerns Addressed
Several common misconceptions can cause undue concern about flu vaccination:
Egg Allergies: Due to traditional egg-based vaccine manufacturing, individuals with egg allergies have historically been concerned. However, current medical guidance in Australia, supported by the Australasian Society of Clinical Immunology and Allergy (ASCIA), states that people with egg allergy, including those with a history of anaphylaxis to egg, can generally be safely vaccinated with the influenza vaccines available in Australia (both egg-based and cell-based). The amount of egg protein (ovalbumin) in these vaccines is typically less than 1 microgram per dose, which is very tiny. Severe allergic reactions to the flu vaccine are very rare, regardless of egg allergy status. For individuals with a history of anaphylaxis to egg, vaccination in a medical facility equipped to recognize and manage severe allergic reactions may be advised as a precaution. The evolution of this guidance demonstrates how medical advice adapts to new evidence, and it should encourage individuals who previously believed they couldn't be vaccinated due to egg allergy to reconsider after consulting their healthcare provider.
"Can the flu shot give me the flu?" The answer is a definitive no. The inactivated influenza vaccines used in Australia do not contain any live virus, so they cannot cause influenza illness. Some people may experience mild, short-lasting side effects like soreness, redness, or swelling at the injection site, a low-grade fever, or muscle aches. These are normal signs that the immune system is responding to the vaccine and building protection, not the flu itself.
Latex Allergy: Influenza vaccines used in Australia do not contain latex and are safe for people with a latex allergy or sensitivity.
Absolute Contraindications: The Very Few Who Shouldn't Vaccinate
It is crucial to emphasize that true absolute contraindications to influenza vaccination are very rare and apply to only a very small number of people. The primary absolute contraindication is:
Severe Allergic Reaction (Anaphylaxis): A history of a severe allergic reaction (anaphylaxis) to a previous dose of any influenza vaccine, or to any other component of the influenza vaccine (apart from egg protein, as discussed above), is a contraindication.
Other situations are considered precautions, where vaccination may still be possible but requires careful discussion and risk-benefit assessment with a healthcare provider:
Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS): A history of GBS that occurred within six weeks of a previous influenza vaccination is a precaution. The decision to vaccinate should be made after discussing the potential risks of GBS recurrence versus the benefits of flu protection with a doctor.
Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors: Individuals undergoing cancer treatment with certain immunotherapy drugs called immune checkpoint inhibitors (especially if taking more than one) may have a higher risk of immune-related adverse events following influenza vaccination. Consultation with their treating oncologist is essential to weigh the risks and benefits.
Moderate or Severe Acute Illness: If an individual has a moderate or severe illness with or without fever (e.g., a significant infection), vaccination should generally be postponed until they have recovered.
Distinguishing between absolute contraindications and precautions is vital. Lumping them together can unnecessarily deter individuals who fall into a "precaution" category from receiving a potentially life-saving vaccine after appropriate medical consultation.
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Your Health, Your Shield: Get Informed, Get Vaccinated
The seasonal influenza vaccine stands as a safe and effective cornerstone in protecting individual and community health against a virus that can cause significant illness and, in some cases, severe complications or death. The benefits of vaccination are clear: it reduces the risk of contracting the flu, lessens the severity of illness if one does get sick, and lowers the chances of flu-related hospitalization and other serious outcomes.
While no vaccine offers 100% protection due to the ever-changing nature of influenza viruses and individual variations in immune response, annual flu vaccination remains the best defence available. The mild, short-lived side effects that some individuals may experience are minor compared to the potential impact of an actual influenza infection.
The decision to get vaccinated is a proactive step towards a healthier winter, not only for oneself but also for family, friends, and the wider community, particularly those most vulnerable to the severe effects of influenza. The conclusion of this analysis is that the evidence strongly supports annual influenza vaccination. Readers are encouraged to speak with their General Practitioner, pharmacist, or local immunisation provider to discuss their individual circumstances and schedule their annual flu shot.

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References
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NCIRS. (2025). Influenza vaccines – frequently asked questions (FAQs).
Therapeutic Goods Administration. (n.d.). Influenza (flu) vaccines.
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Immunisation Coalition. (2024). Influenza in Australia before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Disclaimer: While I strive to ensure all statements, comments, and advice shared on this blog are evidence-based, these recommendations are for the general public and may not apply to your specific circumstances. The information provided on this health blog is not intended to be a substitute for professional specialist medical consultations. Always consult with a qualified healthcare professional for any health concerns or before making any decisions related to your health or treatment.
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